NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Texas is real No. 1? Notre Dame out of playoff? Five college football Week 2 overreactions

Though we’ve only seen two full weeks of results in college football,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center fans and pundits alike will still try to draw grand conclusions about how the rest of the campaign will unfold. We can’t help it. It’s just human nature.

Ultimately, some of our early impressions could prove to be accurate, while others might be a bit hasty. As always, our aim in this space is to try and bring a little big-picture perspective to some of those quick conclusions.

Here are the top five overreactions from Week 2, in which we explore one of the sport’s endless debates, consider which one-loss teams still have realistic title aspirations, and which presumed contenders have cause for concern.

Texas should be No. 1

The Longhorns have an argument. One could make the case that winning a true road game at Michigan in dominant fashion is the best result to date in the young season. One could also point out, correctly, that a team’s position in preseason polls is arbitrary, and perhaps suggest that voters should make adjustments.

It is equally true, however, that there has been little reason for voters who placed Georgia and Ohio State ahead of Texas to change their opinions on the Bulldogs and Buckeyes. At the end of the day, where a team is ranked in early September will have little to no impact on the season’s final outcome. That’s especially true now that more teams will have access to the playoff. In short, polls are fun to debate for engaged fans, but one shouldn’t lose sleep or start fist fights over them.

Notre Dame has no shot at the playoff now

Any loss for the Fighting Irish was going to be damaging without the fallback position of competing for a league championship. Saturday’s setback to Northern Illinois from outside the power conferences, an all-too familiar pattern for the program, isn’t automatically disqualifying on its own. Should Notre Dame finish 11-1, the team would probably still have worked its way back into a high enough ranking by the committee for inclusion.

But running the table is a tall order for a squad with this much inconsistency. Furthermore, a name-brand program like the Fighting Irish is going to get every opponent’s best shot going forward, beginning next week at in-state foe Purdue.

So you’re telling me there’s a chance? (Insert ‘Dumb and Dumber’ meme here.) Well, the Irish’s chances are slightly greater than zero, but the margin for error is gone.

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Michigan can still repeat

An early loss to a top-five team out of conference can be overcome, particularly given the opportunities for quality wins provided by the expanded Big Ten. But there had been red flags for the Wolverines a week earlier as they struggled to get by Fresno State, and thus far there is scant evidence that this version of Michigan can finish high enough in the conference standings to be considered playoff worthy, even with the expanded field.

Yes, we’ve seen teams turn in bounce-back performances (more on that below), and yes, we’re only two weeks into the season. But followers of the maize and blue have to be realistic. Michigan’s back-to-back bid is now the longest of long shots.

Clemson is just fine

Well, perhaps closer to fine, with apologies to the Indigo Girls.

The Tigers gave a fairly convincing rebuttal to the argument that their opening act had short circuited their season before it got off the ground. Cade Klubnik threw five actual touchdown passes, and the Clemson offense reminded fans what it looked like in its championship years against Appalachian State. We hold this truth to be self evident, however – the Mountaineers are not Georgia.

To be sure, Clemson is to be commended for being ready to handle its business and avoid a hangover Saturday against a program with a known giant-killer reputation. But whether the Tigers can perform like that against more accomplished secondaries remains to be seen. Can Clemson win the ACC? Of course. The Tigers will almost certainly be favored against all of their scheduled conference opponents. But while Saturday’s outing was encouraging, we can’t say the team has regained elite status.

Your favorite top-10 team’s narrow escape is a sure sign of trouble

Several perceived playoff contenders dealt with varying levels of angst against Group of Five opponents. Oregon had to battle Boise State down to the wire before prevailing with a walk-off field goal. Penn State was trailing at home against Bowling Green at intermission and only won by a touchdown. Heck, even mighty Alabama was in a one-score game with South Florida in the fourth quarter before posting a deceptive 42-16 final margin.

None of those early-season contests are likely to send any of the teams involved into panic mode, nor should they. Boise State is a very good team with an All-America caliber running back that might have a very strong case for a playoff spot when all is said and done. Bowling Green is a well-coached squad with a veteran quarterback that nearly became the second MAC program to shake up the landscape this weekend. South Florida gave the Crimson Tide all they could handle last season as well so wasn’t intimidated by the bright lights in Tuscaloosa.

Watching nervous fan buzz on message boards is a spectator sport in and of itself, but the simple reality is winning in college football is never easy, even when some programs make it appear so on a weekly basis. Those whose favorites were fortunate enough to survive their latest tests will likely be better for it down the road.